October 01, 2004

The October Surprise

I spent most of yesterday convincing myself that I wasn't going to watch the debate. "Why bother?... Kerry's probably going to screw up (once again) anyhow... and Rove has probably been training Bush for this moment since he was in diapers..."

But we all knew I was really going to watch anyway.

I was in front of the TV at 6:00PM sharp, fists clenched, watching Jim Lehrer rattle off a list of overly-complicated rules, no-no's, and nonsense regulations. "Is this a debate or a F*CKING JOINT PRESS CONFERENCE?!" Z didn't know how to reply. Jim Lehrer apparently decided my criticisms were not worth replying to.

But, all-in-all, I was pleasantly surprised. The fomat... almost worked. Almost. Each time a question went to Kerry, I had a small-yet-significant heart attack thinking of all the horrific ways he could totally screw himself over by answering... and then breathing a small, insufficient sigh of relief when he'd (often) steer clear of the Trainwreck Answer I'd formulated in my head.

But, some day-after tips for you boys:
BUSH:
1. We all know you aren't the greatest public speaker. But hey, we've had Presidents who were worse... Unfortunately, you're the first one to come up during the Age of Media Coverage. And... well... it shows when Kerry is next to you... speaking quite eloquently, I might add. But hey, it's nothing personally to be ashamed of (if it makes you feel any better, I'm worse in front of a crowd... though I can say nuclear properly)... it just doesn't sound very... Presidential.
2. "I see on the T.V. screens how hard it is." I have a feeling you were trying to convey to the audience that, though you aren't in Sadr City with an M-16 in your hands, you do know that the "War on Terror" is a difficult conflict based on the reports, stats, etc. from your staff... but... hey... that was bad.
3. We all know you know who Osama bin Laden is. Don't scold.
4. You didn't seem very cool-headed.
5. Do you even know where Darfur is?
6. You've finally seemed to acknowledge that all-is-not-rosy-and-freedom in Iraq. But... your plan to counteract this would be?... Like Poje, I'd like some specifics.
7. Let's elaborate a bit more on how simultaneous bilateral and multilateral talks with North Korea would undermine the multilateral approach, shall we?
8. Like Sam, I say less rhetoric ["A free Iraq", "solemn duty", "hatred in their hearts"] - sadly, I think people fall for that sh*t.

KERRY:
1. As Poje thankfully pointed out... FOUR Vietnam references?! Say it ain't so. Subtract three and I'll shake your hand. Subtract four and I'll marry you.
2. Like Bush, do you even KNOW where Darfur is?!
3. Less repetition... I began to cringe when hearing, "90% of the cost! 90% of the casualties!"
4. Instead of ignoring the "Coalition of the Willing" entirely [and thus giving Bush his "What about Poland?" line], why not point out that it isn't really a coalition? Here's a point: most coalitions (traditional or not) involve an equal or near-equal division of responsibilities and resources. I'm sure that's what you meant by "90% of the cost! 90% of the casualties!" But, c'mon here, you set yourself up for that.
5. And while we're on internationalization here, you let Bush pigeonhole you into contradicting yourself on Iraq-North Korea policies... making it sound like you want to go mulitlaterally with Iraq, but unilaterally with North Korea. Oopsie. Next time, don't let him define it for you.
6. WHERE ARE THE CHILDREN?! The Bush twins came up to kiss daddy... where were your offspring?!
7. I can only counter your repetition by being repetitive myself. Summits? Yes, you said that about five thousand times... Now, how about these summits? A potential agenda? Some potential attendees? I know you've a drafted plan out there somewhere!
8. Nice tie. I still think you're losing.

But only time will tell (one month, to be specific). My father raised me to be an odd mix of pessimist-realist when it comes to politics. I'm obviously not a Bush fan... but Kerry could do better. It was his race to lose... and I think he's been losing it for the past few months. All is not lost, though. Two more debates, and I happen to think he has a lot more ammunition to throw at Bush on his domestic agenda. I'll even give Kerry some of my favorite Bush screw-ups to toss around: deficit, tax cut, separation of church-and-state, faith-based initiatives, stem cell research, the FMA... shall I go on?

But, then again... all could be lost. It's October 1st... cynics everywhere are bracing for the October Surprise... bin Laden's capture. Do I think it'll happen? Well, eventually, I'd LIKE to see bin Laden on trial and behind bars... But I'm hoping this will be the only October Surprise we'll see.

Posted by James at October 1, 2004 06:54 PM