Z calls it "pessimism" (as if it's a dirty word). I call it realism. My crystal ball says...
Kerry: 265
Bush: 273
Kerry's Comfortable Margin Victories: Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, New York, Maryland, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, California, and Washington.
Bush's Comfortable Margin Victories: Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Arizona, and Alaska.
Kerry's "Boy, that was a close one!" Moments: Oregon, Hawaii, Minnesota, Michigan, Maine, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Same for Bush: Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Missouri, Ohio, and New Hampshire.
I also think Bush will (barely) win the popular vote.
As for the Senate, I'm still a bit murky on my state play-by-play, but I say, at the end of the day...
Republicans: 53
Democrats: 46
Independents (Dem. in all but name): 1
If you've been able to pick your jaw up off the floor, let me add one more point... perhaps the most important thing I've typed yet tonight:
Boy, I hope I'm wrong.