The election was held a month ago today. Stop and think about that: an entire month.
And I still don't know who the next Governor of the State of Washington is going to be.
Civics lesson for the non-Washingtonians out there:
1. Washington is widely considered to be a "blue" state at the federal level. A month ago, we voted overwhelmingly for Kerry-Edwards, and re-elected Democrat Patty Murray for a third term in the Senate. When the new Congress convenes early next year, six of Washington's nine seats in the House of Representatives will be manned by Democrats.
2. At the state level, it's another matter entirely.
--In the state legislature, Dems now rule with election gains in both houses. In the state House of Representatives, Dems increased their lead to 55 seats against 43 for the Republicans. In the state Senate, Republicans lost their slim majority and now hold 23 of the 49 seats.
--In administrative offices, however, there has been a slow, steady gain of offices by the Republican Party. Highly respected (and respectable) Republican Sam Reed has been Washington's Secretary of State for some time now. In last month's election, the Republicans also won the open state Attorney General office, with (handsome) Rob McKenna easily defeating endorsement-starved Democrat Deborah Senn. Widely praised as a moderate/center-right alternative to previous far-right Republican candidates, McKenna is considered to be a rising star in the state's leadership-starved Republican Party. If this A.G. job works well for him (and I see no reason at this point why it shouldn't), I wouldn't be surprised if he'd later seek (and win) the governor's mansion or a seat in Congress. The Commissioner of Public Lands job also fell to the Republicans. It's a slow takeover most Washingtonians won't lose sleep over. [Side note: I now find "Washingtonians" to be a repulsive word. I shall refrain from using it.] While Seattle itself seems full of obsessive (neurotic?) "true blues" who would blindly vote for the Democratic candidate ("A drooling vegetable? You don't say... Well, at least he isn't a Republican."), many voters in suburban and rural counties filled out their ballots at the Bipartisan Buffet...
"John Kerry for President... Patty Murray for Senate... Rob McKenna for A.G... But wait a second: what about governor?"
I obviously don't have too much trouble with Sam Reed and Rob McKenna. A mixing of parties, in my opinion, keeps state politics from becoming oh-so-stagnant or (dare I say) corrupt. But what's going on in the governor's mansion?
Down in Olympia ("down" relative to Seattle, that is), a Democrat has held the governor's seat for over the past two decades. Gary Locke is finishing is ho-hum second and final term as America's first Chinese-American governor. For his successor, current State Attorney General and Democrat Christine "Chris" Gregoire (pronounced "Greg-whaar") faced off against former two-term State Senator Dino Rossi (that's "Deeno Raw-see"). Lord knows why I've had trouble with their names, but there you have it.
I don't know if I was naïve for thinking this, but I figured Mrs. Gregoire would win by a landslide. She served as Washington's Attorney General for eight years, and her office led an occasionally-blundering-but-ultimately-victorious against "Big Tobacco" on behalf of the good people of Washington [note how I avoided saying "Washingtonians"]. After Gregoire easily smashed her only rival in the primary (King County executive Ron Sims), I honestly quit paying attention. Sure, she ran a campaign on lackluster issues and seemed to communicate with almost as much difficulty as Washington's other Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell, but as a center/left-center with eight years of satisfactory/above-satisfactory attorneygeneralness under her belt running against a far-right-masquerading-as-moderate former real estate agent with ties to Washington's oh-so-despicable-yet-just-as-indispensable big business and logging industries, I figured the Dems and Independents would elect her with only a reluctant sigh as they dreamt of a more "exciting" candidate.
But, come election night, while the rest of my fellow Kerry voters went to bed full of agony over Ohio, I was amazed at how close Washington's gubernatorial race was turning out to be. As my head hit the pillow on November 2nd, I thought to myself, "Well, she'll stay up all night and won't find out she's the winner until early tomorrow morning. I hope all that waiting has taught her a lesson about running lackluster campaigns." But we didn't know on November 3rd. Or 4th. By the 5th, votes were trickling in from counties one-by-one, and folks were beginning to relize that this was going to be
A. close
B. painful for the Democrats
For, even if Gregoire were to win, it wouldn't be much of a mandate. Washington's elections are organized and carried out on the county level. The state's unique geography makes for some equally unique county lines, and also reflects the state's unique political divide between east and west. Democrats usually dominate the western half of the state - running west of the Cascade range, down into the Puget Sound area, and across to the Olympic and Kitsap Peninsulas. This region, of course, includes the state's most densely populated region: the Everett-Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia run along Interstate 5, squished oh-so-uncomfortably between the cold Puget Sound and the high, sharp rise of the Cascade Range. The Seattle area itself houses many far-lefties (I believe they answer to "hippie"), but they're usually kept in check at the state level by more moderate and centrist Dems from Puget Sound, the islands, the Olympic Peninsula, and the Columbia delta. The Republicans tend to dominate politics east of the Cascades, in a region generally (and quite appropriately) referred to as eastern Washington. Rural areas dominate, but notable metropolitan areas include Spokane and the Tri-Cities (not to be confused with my former home, the Quad-Cities).
So, in a state where the western population (mostly Dems) is greater than the eastern population (mostly Republicans), shouldn't Gregoire have been able to delcare her victory on election night along with Senator Patty Murray? Here's where geography tells me she's screwed: the "big three" counties of Washington by population are King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties. It should come as no surprise that they are all a part of the Everett-Seattle-Tacoma run. Each county lovingly hugs a precious portion of Puget Sound, before crawling steadily eastwards up the Cascade slopes. Pierce County (Tacoma and vicinity) tiptoes delicately east-and-a-bit-south towards shocking-but-gorgeous Mount Rainier. King County begins with Seattle, sandwiched uncomfortably between the Puget Sound and Lake Washington. Skipping west across Lake Washington, King County embraces the bright, white city of Bellevue and other assorted Microsoft suburbs (all middle class Republican strongholds), before creeping up the snow-capped Cascade slopes. To the north lies Snohomish County, which squeezes the most generous portion of coastline before dissolving quietly up to Snoqualmie National Forest.
Of these "big three," I have asserted since moving here that any Democratic candidate for state office would need to carry two, if not all three, of these. The rules are simple: the populations of all three follow a simple coastal-inland pattern of left-to-right. Coastal politics are more left-leaning, with the right and center-right gradually increasing in popularity as one moves towards those menacing Cascade Ranges. As for counties to carry, King (don't forget the hippies) is a gimmie by my standards. Granted, Bellevue and Microsoft suburbs are more moderate and Republican, but Seattle is able to keep King a Democratic stronghold for the time being. So, Gregoire carried King County with a huge margin.
But, to everyone's surprise (even the Rossi campaign), Dino Rossi carried Pierce County and Snohomish County by narrow (yet comfortable) margins. Rossi also carried his Republican base in eastern Washington. Gregoire did admirably in several Olympic Peninsula counties, Whatcom County (along the Canadian border), Thurston County (moderately-sized county which includes the state capitol), and a few island communities, but the damage was already done. Almost two weeks after the election, with provisional ballots (and court battles) still under way in some counties, the official results came in:
Dino Rossi: 1,371,414 (48.8759%)
Christine Gregoire: 1,371,153 (48.8666%)
Yes, Christine Gregoire lost the machine count by 261 votes. Since the margin separating the candidates was less than 2,000 votes, an automatic machine recount is mandated by law. Provisional ballots in King County were challenged by both sides, a few counties "found" some lost ballots, and the Blame Game began. I, for one, am amazed at the 502 King County voters who wrote in "Ron Sims" for governor, without failing to realize that, under Washington law, an individual who has lost a primary election (as Sims lost to Gregoire in September) is no longer eligible for that office. One Spokane voter who made the same mistake wrote a passionate apology to NPR, begging forgiveness.
Secretary of State Sam Reed earlier this week certified the machine-recounted votes:
Dino Rossi: 1,372,484 (48.8717%)
Christine Gregoire: 1,372,442 (48.8702%)
Yes, she also lost the recount. By 42 votes. If that Spokane voter had done his homework and known that Ron Sims was ineligible for governor, then the margin would be down to 41 votes. What if some of those 502 King County voters had also done their homework? What about the 108 King County voters who attempted to mail back their absentee ballots, but forgot to put the ballot in the envelope.
Ah, democracy!
So, Dino Rossi has been certified as the Governor-Elect. But, all is not through yet. By law, since the margin is so close, a political party can request a hand recount of all or part of the state. There's a catch: the party must provide the money to fund the recount. For the entire state, we're talking at least $1 million dollars. It's a risky move for the Democrats. Gregoire announced today that she would like either a statewide hand recount, or no hand recount at all (her basic argument: "count all votes"). If the results change (that is, if Gregoire wins the hand recount), then the state will refund the money. But that's a big if. The Kerry campaign already donated $250,000 leftover from their failed presidential bid. The Dems are raising money like mad, but some critics argue that money would be better spent helping highly vulnerable Senator Maria Cantwell run for re-election in 2006 (her seat is considered more shaky than fellow first-term Senator Hillary Clinton of New York). Others say that, even if Gregoire somehow wins a hand recount, her mandate will be so weak that it will mean the end of her political career ("She'll whine and recount her way to the office") and put the Dems in danger yet again (translation: a forced one-term governer, with Dems defending an unpopular party legacy in 2008).
Though Gregoire wants a statewide hand recount, it's not her decision. By law, the Democratic Party as a whole decides. They can consider the cheaper option of picking individual counties or precincts for a hand recount. If the results change in those regions, a state-funded hand recount is triggered, with less costs being funded by the party. But those funds (however much cheaper) are non-refundable. The Rossi campaign has already declared victory, and lefties are already spreading the blame of Gregoire's "loss."
What will happen? The Dems have until 5:00PM tomorrow to decide. I predict a statewide hand recount. If Gregoire loses, it's the end of her political career, Rossi will have a strong re-electable mandate ("Hey, I won all three times! Let's go keep gays from marrying!"), and the Dems have to talk tough strategy for keeping Maria Cantwell in her seat come 2006 (she has the same weaknesses as Gregoire, so I hope some lessons can be learned from this mess). If Gregoire wins, it's the end of her political career (though at least she'll be Washington's most memorable one-term governor), and the Dems will have to do everything they can to find a strong candidate for Gregoire's replacement in 2008, in addition to re-electing Cantwell by a larger margin than 42 votes.
Posted by James at December 2, 2004 10:29 PM
